Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.340782 25.629974 30.342927 35.877555 42.169791 49.071626 57.184407
2025-08-31 14.297678 19.700342 26.255754 34.671441 45.056579 57.318110 72.744828
2025-09-07 11.051417 16.978138 24.740140 35.379873 49.291578 66.559958 89.279936
2025-09-14 8.425916 14.337068 22.639650 34.698272 51.264230 72.700493 101.946469
2025-09-21 6.964933 12.962318 21.906865 35.537252 55.025455 81.084842 117.651803
2025-09-28 5.252260 10.808798 19.659483 33.854013 55.007068 84.252114 126.457892
2025-10-05 4.534563 10.116052 19.477925 35.089705 59.085257 93.081263 143.148809
2025-10-12 3.880663 9.387019 19.104319 35.927333 62.548631 101.130207 159.018038
2025-10-19 3.313743 8.691684 18.667416 36.569086 65.684463 108.778690 174.551143
2025-10-26 2.881310 8.165715 18.436946 37.485922 69.242783 117.136609 191.343789
2025-11-02 2.355805 7.311838 17.476829 37.039946 70.557870 122.153536 203.409281
2025-11-09 1.989669 6.725465 16.930169 37.233344 72.868743 128.711986 217.902929
2025-11-16 1.617318 6.053825 16.180706 37.107572 74.845454 135.165076 233.005373
2025-11-23 1.226711 5.202176 14.920416 35.903990 74.925756 138.695655 243.920168
2025-11-30 1.037359 4.854587 14.689708 36.634386 78.376033 147.697055 263.499393
2025-12-07 0.803162 4.266908 13.797974 35.934130 79.198358 152.433470 276.562111
2025-12-14 0.685284 4.023150 13.681728 36.796280 82.883717 161.989614 297.480536
2025-12-21 0.488538 3.374758 12.414647 35.066454 81.612511 163.179222 305.066802
2025-12-28 0.428656 3.257093 12.522273 36.336395 86.079868 174.228482 328.840991
2026-01-04 0.365057 3.087494 12.454263 37.197087 89.789757 184.092219 350.943370
2026-01-11 0.306009 2.903227 12.308136 37.856429 93.126746 193.408374 372.383862
2026-01-18 0.261805 2.769185 12.285714 38.798276 97.063972 203.892728 396.015678
2026-01-25 0.199855 2.476750 11.708929 38.340151 98.132907 209.321201 411.345727